Paddy vs BSD at UFC 329: The Most Dangerous Fight of Pimblett's Career

Paddy Pimblett posted a YouTube video this week where he started training camp, told the audience he wouldn't spoil the surprise of who he's fighting next, and then ended the video wearing a beret, a garlic necklace, and eating a French baguette while staring directly into the camera.

Bro nobody has ever been less subtle about anything in the history of this sport lol.

It's Benoit Saint-Denis. UFC 329. July 11, international Fight Week in Las Vegas. Potentially on the same card as Conor McGregor's comeback. And this is genuinely one of the most dangerous fights of Paddy's career.

What Paddy Just Admitted About Himself

Before we get into the matchup I need to talk about what Paddy said this week because it matters for how this fight plays out.

Paddy told reporters that his fight IQ "was low" against Justin Gaethje at UFC 324 in January. He said his ego got in the way. He tried to stand and trade with one of the hardest hitters in the lightweight division instead of using his grappling, which is the thing that actually makes him elite. He lost a unanimous decision for the interim lightweight title and it wasn't particularly close.

That's Paddy being honest about his biggest flaw. When the lights are brightest and the adrenaline is pumping, he abandons his gameplan and tries to be the tough guy instead of the smart guy. It happened against Gaethje. It's happened in flashes throughout his career. The striking defense has always been the hole in his game and when he lets ego fill that hole instead of wrestling, he loses.

The question going into the BSD fight is whether Paddy actually learned from that or whether he's just saying the right things in interviews. Because if his fight IQ is still low on July 11, Saint-Denis is going to make it a very short night.

Who BSD Actually Is

Okay so if you don't know Benoit Saint-Denis yet, let me catch you up because this dude's backstory is legitimately one of the wildest in the entire UFC.

Before he ever threw a punch professionally, BSD was a member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment. That's French Army Special Forces. He served as a Special Air Service operator in Mali during the Mali War. This man was conducting military operations in West Africa before he decided to start cage fighting.

He was born in Nîmes, France. December 18, 1995. Eldest of five brothers. His dad was a French Army officer who practiced judo. His mom is a teacher. He started judo at 8 years old, earned a black belt, and also played football and rugby growing up. The military was the family path and BSD followed it.

Then in 2017, while he was still in the army, he started training MMA "for fun to be a better SAS Operator." His words. The man started fighting to get better at being a special forces soldier. That was the original plan. Get sharper at hand to hand combat for military applications. Not "become a UFC contender." Just "be a better soldier."

He fell in love with it instead.

In September 2018, a French coach named Daniel Woirin who'd worked with Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, and Lyoto Machida held a tryout for thirty fighters. BSD stood out. He left the army in early 2019, moved to Paris, lived in a small room, and gave himself two years with his savings to make the UFC. Two years. That was the window. If it didn't work, the money ran out and the dream was over.

He went 8-0 with all finishes across middleweight, welterweight, and super lightweight in eleven months. The UFC signed him.

The Four Fight Tear

BSD is on a four fight stoppage streak right now and each one has been nastier than the last.

Kyle Prepolec at UFC 315. Arm triangle choke. Second round. Two minutes and thirty five seconds.

Mauricio Ruffy in Paris. Rear naked choke. Second round. Two minutes and fifty six seconds.

Beneil Dariush at UFC 322 in MSG. Knockout. First round. Sixteen seconds. That's not a typo. He knocked out a veteran like Dariush in sixteen seconds.

Dan Hooker at UFC 325 in Sydney. TKO. Second round. Four minutes and forty five seconds.

Four fights. Four finishes. Two submissions. Two knockouts. Average fight time of about two minutes per round contested. The man is not letting anybody survive and the names he's beating are getting bigger every time.

He's 17-3 with one no contest. He's ranked #5 at lightweight. He's 30 years old. He has the highest significant strike accuracy in UFC lightweight division history at 61.5%. And his nickname is "God of War," which normally I'd roll my eyes at but when the guy was literally a special forces soldier in an actual war it kind of works.

The Matchup

This is a terrible fight for Paddy if he fights dumb and a great fight for Paddy if he fights smart. That's the whole preview in one sentence.

BSD's weakness is his striking defense. He got knocked out by Dustin Poirier at UFC 299. He got TKO'd by Moicano in Paris when the doctor stopped the fight because his eye was swollen shut. When he's standing and trading with elite strikers, he takes damage. A lot of damage. The two losses on his recent record came from guys who kept the fight standing and hit him clean.

Paddy's best weapon is his grappling. His jiu jitsu is genuinely elite. He's submitted guys from positions that most lightweights can't even get to. When Paddy fights on the ground, he looks like a completely different fighter than the guy who stood and traded with Gaethje for five rounds.

So the smart gameplan for Paddy is obvious. Take BSD down. Keep him on the mat. Hunt submissions. Don't let your ego convince you that you can stand with a guy who knocked out Dariush in sixteen seconds.

But here's the problem. BSD is also an elite grappler. Judo black belt. Eleven of his seventeen wins are by submission. He's not going to be an easy takedown and if Paddy takes him down and gets sloppy, BSD can reverse the position and submit him from the bottom. This isn't like taking down a pure striker. BSD is dangerous everywhere.

If this fight stays standing, BSD's power and accuracy advantage could end Paddy's night early. If it goes to the ground, it becomes a jiu jitsu chess match between two of the best grapplers in the lightweight division. Either way, somebody is getting finished. I don't see this going to the judges.

The McGregor Card

The other detail that makes this fight bigger than it already is: UFC 329 is being positioned as Conor McGregor's return card.

McGregor hasn't fought since July 2021. Five years. Ariel Helwani has been reporting that the UFC wants McGregor vs Holloway as the main event of International Fight Week. If that happens, Paddy vs BSD would likely be the co-main event. Paddy fighting on a McGregor card for the first time in his UFC career.

That matters because Paddy has always been positioned as the next generation of what Conor built. The loud personality. The walkout energy. The fan following. The trash talk. If Paddy and Conor are on the same card, the comparisons are unavoidable. And if Paddy loses to BSD while McGregor is headlining the same night, the "next Conor" narrative takes a massive hit.

The pressure on Paddy for this fight is real. First loss in the UFC behind him. Rousey publicly trying to recruit him. BSD on a four fight stoppage streak. A potential McGregor co-main slot. And his own admission that his fight IQ has been the problem all along.

The Pick

I'm going Paddy by submission in the second or third round.

Here's why. BSD's four fight tear is impressive but look at who he's been beating. Prepolec, Ruffy, Dariush, Hooker. All of those guys are primarily strikers or aging veterans. None of them have the kind of grappling that Paddy brings to the table. When BSD has faced elite grapplers, the fights have been competitive. When he's faced elite strikers, he's either won fast or gotten his face rearranged. Paddy is neither of those matchups. Paddy is the grappler who can drag him into deep water and drown him there.

And the Gaethje loss might be the best thing that ever happened to Paddy's career. Sometimes you need to get humbled to actually commit to what makes you great. Paddy knows his striking defense isn't elite. He said it himself. If he walks into this fight with the gameplan of taking BSD down early and hunting submissions from the back, I don't see BSD surviving five rounds of that.

BSD is dangerous in the first round. No question. The sixteen second Dariush KO proves that. But if Paddy can weather the early storm and get the fight to the mat by round two, his jiu jitsu is the best weapon in this matchup. Paddy's back takes are suffocating and BSD has been submitted before.

Paddy by submission. The version of Paddy that fights smart beats BSD. And I think the Gaethje loss finally made him that version.

Thanks for riding with CageLore. Stay locked in!