Israel Adesanya Hasn't Won a Fight in Almost Three Years. Saturday Might Be His Last Chance to Prove He's Not Done

I don't know how to feel about this one. And I think that's the point.

Israel Adesanya fights Joe Pyfer this Saturday in Seattle and for the first time in his entire UFC career, Izzy is the underdog. Let that sink in for a second. The guy who knocked out Alex Pereira, who made Robert Whittaker look average twice, who turned Paulo Costa into a meme, who fought Kelvin Gastelum in one of the greatest fights in UFC history, is walking into Climate Pledge Arena on Saturday night as a betting underdog against the #14 ranked middleweight.

Pyfer is -120 to -130 depending on where you look. Adesanya is +100 to +110. In 18 UFC appearances, Izzy has never been on this side of the odds. Not against Romero. Not against Whittaker. Not against anyone.

And honestly? The oddsmakers might be right. Because the last three years of Adesanya's career have been rough.

The Numbers Don't Lie and They're Brutal

Izzy's last win was the Pereira knockout at UFC 287 in April 2023. That was the "I told you so" performance. Pereira had taken his belt at UFC 281, and Izzy came back and flatlined him with a counter right hand in the second round. One of the best revenge knockouts in middleweight history. The whole arena lost its mind. Izzy was back. The king was back.

That was almost three years ago. He hasn't won since.

September 2023: Sean Strickland outpointed him over five rounds at UFC 293. All three judges scored it 49-46. That wasn't a close fight. Strickland walked him down for 25 minutes and Izzy had no answer for it. August 2024: Dricus Du Plessis submitted him in the fourth round at UFC 305 with a face crank. First submission loss of Izzy's career. February 2025: Nassourdine Imavov knocked him out in 30 seconds of the second round. Thirty seconds. An overhand right put him down and the follow up shots finished it.

Three straight losses. One decision, one submission, one TKO. Three completely different ways to lose. And the Imavov fight is the one that scares me the most because it wasn't a chess match where Izzy got outpointed over five rounds. He got hurt and stopped in less than a round and a half against a guy who, no disrespect to Imavov, is not on the level of the fighters Izzy used to dominate.

24-5 overall. 13-5 in the UFC. One win in his last five fights. Those are the numbers. They don't paint a pretty picture.

If you want the full timeline of how we got here, we broke down Izzy's entire fall from the top a while back. Every loss, every turning point, the whole thing. But the short version is this: the guy who used to be untouchable at 185 is now fighting for survival against the #14 ranked contender. That's where we're at.

But Real Talk, This Dude's Resume Is Insane

I need to pump the brakes on the obituary for a second because I think people are forgetting who we're talking about.

Israel Adesanya is a two time UFC middleweight champion with five title defenses. He beat Robert Whittaker twice. He beat Paulo Costa so badly that Costa blamed it on a bottle of wine. He survived Yoel Romero, who is basically a lab experiment that escaped. He had a Fight of the Year with Gastelum that got inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame. He knocked out Anderson Silva in Silva's last meaningful UFC fight, and Silva told him after the bout that he was passing the torch. He KO'd Pereira in one of the most electric revenge performances the sport has ever seen.

His striking at peak form was some of the best the middleweight division has ever produced. 6'4" with an 80 inch reach, fighting out of a switch stance, setting traps three exchanges ahead of his opponent. When Izzy was on, dude, he made elite fighters look like they were fighting underwater. The head movement, the feints, the timing on his counters. Anderson Silva vibes. And I say that knowing how heavy that comparison is.

That's who's fighting on Saturday. Or at least, that's who used to fight on Saturday. The question is whether any of that version of Adesanya still exists.

Joe Pyfer Is Not Here to Be a Stepping Stone

Look, if the UFC booked this fight thinking Adesanya would use Pyfer as a feel good comeback win against a lower ranked opponent, they might've miscalculated.

Pyfer is 29. He's 15-3 overall, 6-1 in the UFC. His only UFC loss was a decision to Jack Hermansson in February 2024, and since then he's won three straight. First round KO of Marc Andre Barriault. Unanimous decision over Kelvin Gastelum where he dropped him twice. Second round submission of Abusupiyan Magomedov at UFC 320. Three wins, three different methods. The dude can do everything.

And then there's the punch machine thing. Pyfer broke Francis Ngannou's record on the UFC punch machine. Now, is that a real indicator of fight performance? Probably not. Ngannou's record was basically a meme at that point. But it tells you something about the raw power this kid carries in his hands. He's 6'2", 186 pounds, orthodox stance, and he hits like a heavyweight. If he catches you clean, you're going down. That's just facts.

His gameplan is going to be straightforward. Push the pace. Pressure Adesanya. Don't let him get comfortable at range where his length and timing are most dangerous. Force exchanges in the pocket where Pyfer's power advantage is biggest. And if the fight goes to the ground, Pyfer has shown he's comfortable there too, which is something you absolutely could not say about prime Adesanya opponents like Costa or Romero.

The question for Pyfer isn't whether he has the tools. He does. The question is whether he can manage five rounds against a former champion who has gone to decision in multiple title fights and never looked tired doing it.

The Five-Round Factor

Stay with me here because this is actually the most important variable in the entire fight.

Pyfer has never fought a five round main event. His longest UFC fight was the Hermansson decision, which went five rounds, and he lost. Every other fight on his record has been three rounds or less. His finishing rate is elite but his pacing in a 25-minute fight is a complete unknown.

Adesanya has fought eleven five round fights in the UFC. He's gone the distance in championship fights against Whittaker, Romero, Cannonier, Vettori, and Strickland. His cardio at championship pace has historically been one of his biggest advantages. He's patient. He reads patterns. He makes adjustments between rounds. He's been in deep water more times than Pyfer has been in main events.

If this fight gets to rounds four and five, Adesanya's experience becomes a massive edge. Pyfer has never had to manage output and energy across 25 minutes against someone who's been there a dozen times. The late round management, the ability to find openings when both guys are tired, the composure to not panic when the fight isn't going your way, that stuff matters and Izzy has years of it banked.

But if Pyfer catches him early? The Imavov fight showed that this version of Adesanya can be hurt and finished quickly. Thirty seconds into round two. That's not just a bad night. That's a sign that the chin might not be what it used to be. And against Pyfer's power, getting clipped in the first or second round could end the conversation before it starts.

My Pick

I'm going Adesanya. And I know that sounds crazy given the losing streak. But hear me out.

The oddsmakers are pricing this fight based on the last three results. And those results are terrible. I get it. But Adesanya's losses have all come against elite competition or in situations where the stylistic matchup was wrong. Strickland's relentless forward pressure neutralized Izzy's counterstriking. Du Plessis's grappling exposed a weakness Izzy's never been able to fix. Imavov caught him clean with the kind of shot that finishes anybody.

Pyfer is dangerous but he's not Strickland, Du Plessis, or even Imavov stylistically. He's a power puncher who wants to come forward and trade. That's the kind of fighter Adesanya has historically demolished. Costa came forward and got picked apart. Whittaker came forward the second time and got dropped and outpointed. When Izzy can sit at range and counter, he's still one of the best in the world at it.

I think Adesanya weathers an early storm, figures out Pyfer's timing by round two or three, and starts landing counters that slow the younger fighter down. By the championship rounds, Pyfer's output drops, Adesanya's precision takes over, and Izzy gets a decision. Probably 48-47 or 49-46 depending on how dominant the late rounds are.

Adesanya by decision. But I'm not confident. If Pyfer catches him in the first two rounds, this whole prediction goes in the trash. The margin for error is razor thin and Adesanya knows it.

Why Saturday Matters More Than Any Fight on the Card

This fight is bigger than a main event headliner between a #4 and #14 ranked middleweight. This fight is about whether one of the greatest middleweights in UFC history is done.

If Izzy loses on Saturday, that's four losses in his last five fights. At 36 years old. Against a guy ranked 14th. There's no spinning that. There's no "well, it was a tough stylistic matchup" excuse. A fourth loss in five fights means the conversation shifts from "can Izzy get back to the title?" to "should Izzy retire?"

And I don't want to have that conversation. I really don't. I grew up watching this dude dance his way to the octagon and then make elite fighters look like they didn't belong in there with him. The Gastelum fight changed my understanding of what a UFC fight could be. The Pereira knockout is in my top five favorite UFC moments ever. Izzy at his best was a generational talent.

But sports don't care about what you used to be. They care about what you are right now. And right now, Israel Adesanya is a 36 year-old former champion on a three fight losing streak who's about to be tested by a 29 year old knockout artist with something to prove.

Saturday in Seattle. Either the legend reminds everybody why he's in the Hall of Fame conversation, or the next generation officially takes over. There's no in between.

Thanks for riding with CageLore. Stay locked in!

Frequently Asked Questions About Adesanya vs Pyfer

When is Adesanya vs Pyfer?

Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer takes place Saturday, March 28, 2026 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+, with prelims beginning at 5:00 PM ET.

What are the odds for Adesanya vs Pyfer?

Joe Pyfer is the betting favorite at approximately -120 to -130, while Israel Adesanya is the underdog at +100 to +110. This marks the first time in Adesanya's 18 UFC appearances that he has been listed as an underdog.

What is Adesanya's current record and losing streak?

Israel Adesanya is 24-5 overall and 13-5 in the UFC. He is currently on a three-fight losing streak, with losses to Sean Strickland (decision, Sept 2023), Dricus Du Plessis (submission, Aug 2024), and Nassourdine Imavov (TKO, Feb 2025). His last win was the knockout of Alex Pereira at UFC 287 in April 2023.

What is Joe Pyfer's record?

Joe Pyfer is 15-3 overall and 6-1 in the UFC. He is on a three-fight winning streak with victories over Marc-Andre Barriault (KO), Kelvin Gastelum (decision), and Abusupiyan Magomedov (submission). His only UFC loss was a decision to Jack Hermansson in February 2024.

Is this a five-round fight?

Yes. As the main event of a UFC Fight Night card, Adesanya vs Pyfer is scheduled for five rounds. This is notable because Pyfer has limited experience in five-round fights, while Adesanya has competed in eleven five-round bouts in the UFC.

What else is on the UFC Seattle card?

The co-main event features former flyweight champion Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber in a rematch. The card also includes Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price, Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez, and several other bouts across multiple weight classes.